Canadian Premier League — Canada
Sun, May 3 2026 • 23:00 • Starlight Stadium
Not Started

Pacific FC

—

Vancouver FC

Expected Goals
0.71 (league 1.41) 0.88 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.4% 35.3% 37.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
20.4%
0 - 1
18.0%
1 - 0
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
Vancouver FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pacific FC 0 20.4% 18.0% 7.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.5% 12.7% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 5.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Pacific FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pacific FC +5.4, Vancouver FC -2.1.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Pacific FC Elo 1414.7 · +5.4
vs
Vancouver FC Elo 1414.1 · -2.1
Elo gapPacific FC +36
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2828.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2828.8
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Pacific FC Vancouver FC
Overall Elo1414.71414.1
Form Elo14391413.6
Home / Away Elo1476.61465.5
Attack Elo1448.31426.1
Defense Elo1341.91379.8
Last 5 Elo change+5.4-2.1

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Pacific FC last-5 Elo change: +5.4; Vancouver FC last-5 Elo change: -2.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPacific FCVancouver FC
Played44
Form8%8%
Attack56%11%
Defense11%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 1.31 | 0.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 24 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-3
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pacific FC Vancouver FC
HATHAT
Played314224
Wins0%0%0%0%0%0%
Draws0%100%25%0%50%25%
Loses100%0%75%100%50%75%
Pacific FCLLDL
Vancouver FCLLLD

League goals

Metric Pacific FC Vancouver FC
HATHAT
GF total325011
GF avg1.02.01.30.00.50.3
GA total628224
GA avg2.02.02.01.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePacific FCVancouver FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%100%25%100%
1.550%75%0%0%
2.50%25%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPacific FCVancouver FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score101213

Penalties

MetricPacific FCVancouver FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricPacific FCVancouver FC
Wins00
Draws10
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins————
Biggest losses2-3—0-11-0
Goals For2201
Goals Against3211

Model comparison

MetricPacific FCVancouver FC
Form50%50%
Att83%17%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution50%50%
H2h64%36%
Goals53%47%
Total55.5%44.5%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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