Fri, May 1 2026 • 10:15 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.67)
0.49 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.2% | 22.1% | 9.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.8%
2 - 0
16.3%
0 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Macarthur Rams | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Blacktown Spartans | 0 | 10.9% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Blacktown Spartans carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 189 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Blacktown Spartans +35.0, Macarthur Rams -12.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Blacktown Spartans
vs
Macarthur Rams
Elo gapBlacktown Spartans +189
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3064.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3064.7
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1609.5 | 1455.2 |
| Form Elo | 1629.6 | 1460.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.2 | 1454.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1656.8 | 1380.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1502.1 | 1461.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +35.0 | -12.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Blacktown Spartans last-5 Elo change: +35.0; Macarthur Rams last-5 Elo change: -12.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 31% |
| Defense | 62% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 86% | 60% | 75% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 14% | 20% | 17% | 33% | 17% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 20% | 8% | 17% | 50% | 33% |
Blacktown SpartansWWDLWWDWWWWW
Macarthur RamsWLDWDDWLWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| GF avg | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 7 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 25% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Blacktown Spartans | Macarthur Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 79% | 21% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 74.7% | 25.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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