Fri, May 1 2026 • 09:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.37 (league 1.35)
0.97 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9% | 36.5% | 49.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
0 - 1
25.4%
0 - 2
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Bắc Ninh | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Văn Hiến | 0 | 26.2% | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Bắc Ninh carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Văn Hiến +5.0, Bắc Ninh +13.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Văn Hiến
vs
Bắc Ninh
Elo gapBắc Ninh +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3054
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3054
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1499.5 | 1554.5 |
| Form Elo | 1508 | 1576.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.4 | 1533.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1451.5 | 1496 |
| Defense Elo | 1541.5 | 1554 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.0 | +13.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Văn Hiến last-5 Elo change: +5.0; Bắc Ninh last-5 Elo change: +13.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 33% | 47% |
| Defense | 73% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Wins | 38% | 38% | 38% | 63% | 50% | 56% |
| Draws | 38% | 38% | 38% | 13% | 50% | 31% |
| Loses | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
Văn HiếnDLLWLWDWDWDWDWDL
Bắc NinhDWDWDLDWWWWLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 6 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 56% | 75% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 19% | 38% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 6% | 25% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-2 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Văn Hiến | Bắc Ninh |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…