Youth Championship — Russia
Fri, May 1 2026 • 14:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Rostov U19

—

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.76) 4.76 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.8% 7.9% 50.6%
best score tips
1 - 4
5.7%
1 - 5
5.4%
2 - 4
4.8%
Score & goals probability table
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rostov U19 0 0.2% 0.7% 1.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2%
1 0.3% 1.3% 3.0% 4.8% 5.7% 5.4%
2 0.2% 1.1% 2.6% 4.1% 4.8% 4.6%
3 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 2.3% 2.8% 2.6%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rostov U19 -6.5, Lokomotiv Moskva U19 +17.6.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Rostov U19 Elo 1544.1 · -6.5
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 Elo 1644.6 · +17.6
Elo gapLokomotiv Moskva U19 +66
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3188.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3188.7
Elo home share 41%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Rostov U19 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Overall Elo1544.11644.6
Form Elo15251659
Home / Away Elo1503.51563.4
Attack Elo1565.71706.4
Defense Elo1534.41618.2
Last 5 Elo change-6.5+17.6

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Rostov U19 last-5 Elo change: -6.5; Lokomotiv Moskva U19 last-5 Elo change: +17.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Played55
Form47%73%
Attack36%82%
Defense55%59%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.618 | 3.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

66%
FT probability

BTTS

82%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rostov U19 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
HATHAT
Played437527
Wins25%33%29%60%50%57%
Draws25%0%14%40%50%43%
Loses50%67%57%0%0%0%
Rostov U19LLLDWWL
Lokomotiv Moskva U19DWWWDDW

League goals

Metric Rostov U19 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
HATHAT
GF total651118725
GF avg1.51.71.63.63.53.6
GA total89179413
GA avg2.03.02.41.82.01.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%71%100%86%
1.543%57%100%71%
2.543%43%71%14%
3.514%29%57%14%
4.50%29%29%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score213000

Penalties

MetricRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Wins23
Draws12
Losses30

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-15-02-5
Biggest losses3-53-0——
Goals For3455
Goals Against5642

Model comparison

MetricRostov U19Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Form39%61%
Att31%69%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h25%75%
Goals36%64%
Total34.3%65.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Rostov U19 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19