Liga Pro — Ecuador
Fri, Mar 20 2026 • 00:00 • Estadio George Capwell
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.34) 2.02 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.9% 20.7% 61.7%
best score tips
0 - 2
11.0%
0 - 1
10.9%
1 - 2
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Independiente del Valle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 5.4% 10.9% 11.0% 7.4% 3.7% 1.5%
1 4.9% 9.8% 9.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.4%
2 2.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEmelecIndependiente del Valle
Played34
Form44%83%
Attack38%100%
Defense63%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 19 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 13 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Emelec Independiente del Valle
HATHAT
Played213314
Wins50%0%33%67%100%75%
Draws50%0%33%33%0%25%
Loses0%100%33%0%0%0%

Form: Emelec: DLW • Independiente del Valle: WWWD

League goals

Metric Emelec Independiente del Valle
HATHAT
GF total303729
GF avg1.50.01.02.32.02.3
GA total213303
GA avg1.01.01.01.00.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEmelecIndependiente del Valle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%100%100%50%
1.533%0%100%25%
2.50%0%25%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEmelecIndependiente del Valle
HATHAT
Clean sheets000112
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricEmelecIndependiente del Valle
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricEmelecIndependiente del Valle
Wins03
Draws10
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-10-2
Biggest losses—1-0——
Goals For2032
Goals Against1120

Model comparison

MetricEmelecIndependiente del Valle
Form29%71%
Att25%75%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h29%71%
Goals40%60%
Total34.6%65.4%

Advice: Winner : Independiente del Valle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.60 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.28 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ 188Bet
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Emelec = 0.90 (league 1.34), Independiente del Valle = 2.02 (league 0.99)

Independiente del Valle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 5.4% 10.9% 11.0% 7.4% 3.7% 1.5%
1 4.9% 9.8% 9.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.4%
2 2.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.9% · Draw 20.7% · Away win 61.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1