Universidad Catolica vs Macara

Liga Pro — Ecuador

Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 00:00 • Olimpico Atahualpa

First Half

home	draw	away
60.9%	27.9%	10.9%

		Macara
Universidad Catolica	0	17.2%	6.9%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	23.4%	9.4%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2	15.9%	6.4%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	7.2%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	2.4%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Home edge

Universidad Catolica carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 76 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Universidad Catolica +24.7, Macara -8.6.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone

Universidad Catolica Elo 1604.4 · +24.7

Macara Elo 1563.1 · -8.6

Elo gapUniversidad Catolica +76

Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%

Expected home share61%

Combined Elo3167.5

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home edge

Confidence band Medium confidence

Upset risk Medium

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3167.5

Elo home share 61%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Overall Elo	1604.4	1563.1
Form Elo	1628.6	1565
Home / Away Elo	1553	1550.3
Attack Elo	1645	1484
Defense Elo	1575.6	1637.6
Last 5 Elo change	+24.7	-8.6

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Universidad Catolica last-5 Elo change: +24.7; Macara last-5 Elo change: -8.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Played	5	5
Form	73%	47%
Attack	91%	55%
Defense	73%	55%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	6 \| 1.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	3 \| 0.6	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.10

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.20

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%

FT probability

2.5+

41%

FT probability

3.5+

29%

FT probability

BTTS

60%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-3

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Universidad Catolica			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	4	9	5	4	9
Wins	80%	25%	56%	40%	25%	33%
Draws	20%	75%	44%	40%	50%	44%
Loses	0%	0%	0%	20%	25%	22%

Universidad CatolicaDWDWDWDWW

MacaraDWDDWDLLW

League goals

Metric	Universidad Catolica			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	11	4	15	5	4	9
GF avg	2.2	1.0	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0
GA total	2	2	4	3	3	6
GA avg	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.8	0.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Universidad Catolica		Macara
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	89%	44%	67%	56%
1.5	44%	0%	22%	11%
2.5	22%	0%	11%	0%
3.5	11%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Universidad Catolica			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	3	2	5	2	2	4
Failed to score	0	1	1	2	1	3

Penalties

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Wins	1	1
Draws	1	2
Losses	0	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-1	0-2	3-1	0-2
Biggest losses	—	—	0-1	2-1
Goals For	4	2	3	2
Goals Against	1	1	1	2

Model comparison

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Form	61%	39%
Att	63%	38%
Def	63%	38%
Poisson Distribution	77%	23%
H2h	100%	0%
Goals	81%	19%
Total	69.0%	31.4%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.75 @ 1xBet

Draw3.70 @ Betano

Away5.40 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Unibet

Under 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ Unibet

No1.91 @ Betano

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Universidad Catolica vs Macara

Metric	Universidad Catolica	Macara
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Universidad Catolica vs Macara