Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:45 •
Estadio Bellavista
Expected Goals
0.25 (league 1.29)
0.88 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | 39.7% | 50.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
32.2%
0 - 1
28.5%
0 - 2
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Cuenca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mushuc Runa SC | 0 | 32.2% | 28.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Deportivo Cuenca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mushuc Runa SC +11.1, Deportivo Cuenca -6.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Mushuc Runa SC
vs
Deportivo Cuenca
Elo gapDeportivo Cuenca +19
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3026.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3026.6
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1486.2 | 1540.4 |
| Form Elo | 1493.7 | 1530.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.1 | 1523 |
| Attack Elo | 1482.4 | 1521 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.6 | 1598.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.1 | -6.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Mushuc Runa SC last-5 Elo change: +11.1; Deportivo Cuenca last-5 Elo change: -6.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 58% | 58% |
| Defense | 67% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
32%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
50%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 60% | 0% | 30% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
| Draws | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 60% | 30% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Mushuc Runa SCDDLDLWDWWL
Deportivo CuencaLWWDLDWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 0 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 50% | 80% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 20% | 0% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mushuc Runa SC | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 49.4% | 50.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.91 @ Unibet
Draw3.30 @ Pinnacle
Away4.25 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.30 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ 10Bet
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League standings
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