Liga Pro — Ecuador
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 23:10 • Estadio 9 de Mayo
Not Started

Orense SC

—

Barcelona SC

Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.30) 0.96 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.6% 30.4% 31.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
13.5%
0 - 0
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Barcelona SC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Orense SC 0 12.9% 12.5% 6.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.9% 13.5% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 7.5% 7.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 2.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Barcelona SC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Orense SC +9.1, Barcelona SC +30.4.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Orense SC Elo 1504.5 · +9.1
vs
Barcelona SC Elo 1570 · +30.4
Elo gapBarcelona SC +31
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3074.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3074.5
Elo home share 46%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Orense SC Barcelona SC
Overall Elo1504.51570
Form Elo1506.81598.8
Home / Away Elo15351539.1
Attack Elo1475.81457
Defense Elo15091595.1
Last 5 Elo change+9.1+30.4

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Orense SC last-5 Elo change: +9.1; Barcelona SC last-5 Elo change: +30.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOrense SCBarcelona SC
Played55
Form47%67%
Attack58%67%
Defense42%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Orense SC Barcelona SC
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins40%20%30%80%20%50%
Draws40%20%30%20%40%30%
Loses20%60%40%0%40%20%
Orense SCLDDLWLLWDW
Barcelona SCWLWDDDWWLW

League goals

Metric Orense SC Barcelona SC
HATHAT
GF total77147411
GF avg1.41.41.41.40.81.1
GA total6915358
GA avg1.21.81.50.61.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOrense SCBarcelona SC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%90%80%50%
1.540%50%30%20%
2.520%10%0%10%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOrense SCBarcelona SC
HATHAT
Clean sheets101235
Failed to score112022

Penalties

MetricOrense SCBarcelona SC
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricOrense SCBarcelona SC
Wins12
Draws23
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-32-10-2
Biggest losses1-22-0—3-1
Goals For3322
Goals Against2313

Model comparison

MetricOrense SCBarcelona SC
Form41%59%
Att47%53%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h40%60%
Goals47%53%
Total45.8%54.2%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.65 @ Unibet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.87 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ 10Bet
No1.90 @ Betano
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League standings

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