Esiliiga A
— Estonia
Fri, May 1 2026 • 16:00 •
Sportland Arena
Expected Goals
4.82 (league 2.06)
1.75 (league 1.71)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% |
best score tips
4 - 1
5.5%
5 - 1
5.3%
4 - 2
4.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Maardu | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Flora II | 0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Maardu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Flora II +61.2, Maardu -21.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Flora II
vs
Maardu
Elo gapMaardu +32
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3108.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3108.7
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521 | 1587.7 |
| Form Elo | 1552.7 | 1553.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.2 | 1577.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1597.9 | 1801.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1469.7 | 1496.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +61.2 | -21.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Flora II last-5 Elo change: +61.2; Maardu last-5 Elo change: -21.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 57% |
| Defense | 64% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 18 | 3.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
66%
FT probability
BTTS
93%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 75% | 67% | 71% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Loses | 25% | 33% | 29% | 25% | 75% | 50% |
Flora IILLWWWWW
MaarduLLLDWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 8 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 9 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Flora II | Maardu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 86% | 88% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 43% | 25% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 14% | 13% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 14% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-4 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Flora II | Maardu |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 59.3% | 40.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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