K3 League
— South-Korea
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.25)
1.10 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.6% | 27.0% | 30.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
11.7%
0 - 1
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Changwon City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Daejeon Korail | 0 | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.7% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Daejeon Korail carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Daejeon Korail -8.3, Changwon City -13.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Daejeon Korail
vs
Changwon City
Elo gapDaejeon Korail +67
Home / draw / away46% / 22% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3095.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3095.9
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1563.7 | 1532.2 |
| Form Elo | 1559.5 | 1529.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.2 | 1508.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1628.8 | 1462.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1567.4 | 1589 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.3 | -13.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Daejeon Korail last-5 Elo change: -8.3; Changwon City last-5 Elo change: -13.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 24% | 35% |
| Defense | 82% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 25% | 29% | 50% | 33% | 43% |
| Draws | 0% | 75% | 43% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Loses | 67% | 0% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
Daejeon KorailWDDDLLW
Changwon CityWDLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 57% | 71% | 57% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 14% | 29% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Daejeon Korail | Changwon City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 56.7% | 43.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.60 @ Unibet
Draw3.20 @ Betano
Away2.86 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.88 @ Betano
No1.95 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.23 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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