K3 League
— South-Korea
Sat, May 2 2026 • 05:00 •
Busan Gudeok Stadium
Expected Goals
1.79 (league 1.26)
0.38 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2% | 20.7% | 7.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.5%
2 - 0
18.3%
0 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Dangjin Citizen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Busan Transportation | 0 | 11.5% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.9% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Busan Transportation carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 73 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Busan Transportation +6.0, Dangjin Citizen +25.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Busan Transportation
vs
Dangjin Citizen
Elo gapBusan Transportation +73
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3047.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3047.8
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1542.7 | 1505.1 |
| Form Elo | 1559.5 | 1519.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.1 | 1509.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1519.7 | 1514.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.5 | 1485 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +6.0 | +25.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Busan Transportation last-5 Elo change: +6.0; Dangjin Citizen last-5 Elo change: +25.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 54% | 69% |
| Defense | 85% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Wins | 50% | 50% | 50% | — | 50% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 50% | 38% | — | 13% | 13% |
| Loses | 17% | 0% | 13% | — | 38% | 38% |
Busan TransportationWWDLDDWW
Dangjin CitizenLWLLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 25% | 88% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 50% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-3 | — | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | — | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Busan Transportation | Dangjin Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 59.5% | 40.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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