Sat, Apr 11 2026 • 21:00 •
Moisés Lucarelli
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.11)
1.21 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.3% | 29.4% | 43.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.7%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Vila Nova | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ponte Preta | 0 | 12.1% | 14.7% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 56% |
| Attack | 22% | 56% |
| Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 4 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
86%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Ponte PretaLDL
Vila NovaDDW
League goals
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 33% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ponte Preta | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 44.2% | 55.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.86 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ 188Bet
Away2.97 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.38 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.60 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Betfair
No1.90 @ Betano
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League standings
Loading standings…