Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 00:30 •
Arena Pantanal
Expected Goals
0.36 (league 1.11)
1.20 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | 31.0% | 57.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
25.2%
0 - 0
20.9%
0 - 2
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Botafogo SP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cuiaba | 0 | 20.9% | 25.2% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Cuiaba carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 49 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cuiaba +12.1, Botafogo SP +12.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Cuiaba
vs
Botafogo SP
Elo gapCuiaba +49
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2979.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2979.8
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1496.7 | 1483.1 |
| Form Elo | 1525 | 1506.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511 | 1476.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1472.9 | 1392.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1557.6 | 1488.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.1 | +12.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Cuiaba last-5 Elo change: +12.1; Botafogo SP last-5 Elo change: +12.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 17% | 67% |
| Defense | 83% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
32%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
46%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 33% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 50% | 67% | 60% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 50% | 0% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
CuiabaDDLDW
Botafogo SPWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 20% | 20% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cuiaba | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 20% | 80% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 48.6% | 51.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.97 @ Dafabet
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away4.88 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.83 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.45 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.62 @ William Hill
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League standings
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