Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 00:00 •
Estadio Alfredo Jaconi
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.11)
1.93 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.6% | 22.2% | 49.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 1
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Londrina | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juventude | 0 | 3.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Londrina carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Juventude +12.3, Londrina -1.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Juventude
vs
Londrina
Elo gapLondrina +19
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3096.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3096.2
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1520.9 | 1575.3 |
| Form Elo | 1540.2 | 1572.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.4 | 1550.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1479.5 | 1501.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1528.2 | 1648.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.3 | -1.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Juventude last-5 Elo change: +12.3; Londrina last-5 Elo change: -1.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 33% | 58% |
| Defense | 67% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 20% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
| Loses | 0% | 67% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
JuventudeLDLWW
LondrinaWDLLD
League goals
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Juventude | Londrina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 40% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 40% | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-1 | — | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Juventude | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 54.0% | 46.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.95 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ Dafabet
Away4.54 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.40 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ William Hill
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League standings
Loading standings…