Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.11)
1.81 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.3% | 22.8% | 57.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.1%
0 - 2
10.9%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Goias | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| São Bernardo | 0 | 6.7% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Goias carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 46 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: São Bernardo +1.4, Goias -16.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
São Bernardo
vs
Goias
Elo gapGoias +46
Home / draw / away32% / 25% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3085
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3085
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1502.1 | 1582.9 |
| Form Elo | 1508.2 | 1559.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.9 | 1519.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1456.2 | 1519.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1568.4 | 1626.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.4 | -16.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. São Bernardo last-5 Elo change: +1.4; Goias last-5 Elo change: -16.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 58% | 50% |
| Defense | 58% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 67% | 40% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
São BernardoDLWLW
GoiasWDWLL
League goals
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | São Bernardo | Goias | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 80% | 60% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-3 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | São Bernardo | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.61 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away3.05 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.55 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.57 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.06 @ Unibet
No1.78 @ Betano
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League standings
Loading standings…