Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 22:30 •
Gran Parque Central
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.15)
1.02 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.3% | 23.7% | 22.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Penarol | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Club Nacional | 0 | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 67% |
| Attack | 31% | 46% |
| Defense | 85% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
87%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
Club NacionalWDW
PenarolWLW
League goals
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Club Nacional | Penarol | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-2 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Club Nacional | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.41 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away3.34 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.49 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.05 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ William Hill
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League standings
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