Esiliiga B
— Estonia
Fri, May 1 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.36 (league 2.26)
2.26 (league 1.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.4% | 15.5% | 22.2% |
best score tips
3 - 2
5.9%
2 - 2
5.2%
3 - 1
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Tartu Kalev | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Johvi Phoenix | 0 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Johvi Phoenix carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Johvi Phoenix -10.5, Tartu Kalev +11.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Johvi Phoenix
vs
Tartu Kalev
Elo gapJohvi Phoenix +23
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3118.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3118.3
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1552.9 | 1565.4 |
| Form Elo | 1551.1 | 1568.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1565.5 | 1550 |
| Attack Elo | 1772 | 1731.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1373.4 | 1486.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.5 | +11.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Johvi Phoenix last-5 Elo change: -10.5; Tartu Kalev last-5 Elo change: +11.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 80% |
| Attack | 52% | 34% |
| Defense | 52% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
68%
FT probability
BTTS
90%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 57% | 75% | 67% | 71% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 43% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
Johvi PhoenixWLWLWLW
Tartu KalevLWWWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| GF avg | 3.8 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 10 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GA avg | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 43% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 86% | 43% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 43% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 29% | 14% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 14% | 0% | 14% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | — | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 6-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Johvi Phoenix | Tartu Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 45.5% | 54.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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