Esiliiga B
— Estonia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 09:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
5.30 (league 2.26)
0.19 (league 1.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
best score tips
5 - 0
14.4%
4 - 0
13.6%
3 - 0
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Legion | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Narva U21 | 0 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 13.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 14.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Narva U21 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 227 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Narva U21 +24.1, Legion +13.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Narva U21
vs
Legion
Elo gapNarva U21 +227
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo2986
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2986
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1589.2 | 1396.8 |
| Form Elo | 1609.2 | 1395.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1568 | 1457.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1775.3 | 1501.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1528.6 | 1175.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +24.1 | +13.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Narva U21 last-5 Elo change: +24.1; Legion last-5 Elo change: +13.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 47% |
| Attack | 61% | 30% |
| Defense | 74% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
78%
FT probability
3.5+
56%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 71% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 29% | 50% | 75% | 63% |
Narva U21LWLWWWW
LegionLLLLLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| GF avg | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Narva U21 | Legion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 57% | 63% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% | 25% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 14% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Narva U21 | Legion |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 37% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 96% | 4% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 86% | 14% |
| Total | 73.2% | 26.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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