Penuel vs Chornomorets II

Druha Liga — Ukraine

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:30 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Penuel

—

Chornomorets II

Expected Goals

1.18 (league 1.44) 0.83 (league 1.35)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
44.0%	30.0%	25.8%

best score tips

1 - 0

15.8%

0 - 0

13.3%

1 - 1

13.1%

Score & goals probability table

		Chornomorets II
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Penuel	0	13.3%	11.0%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%
	1	15.8%	13.1%	5.4%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%
	2	9.4%	7.8%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
	3	3.7%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
	4	1.1%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Penuel -12.3, Chornomorets II -19.6.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Penuel Elo 1372.4 · -12.3

Chornomorets II Elo 1417.6 · -19.6

Elo gapChornomorets II +10

Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%

Expected home share49%

Combined Elo2790

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2790

Elo home share 49%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Overall Elo	1372.4	1417.6
Form Elo	1359.2	1404
Home / Away Elo	1450.6	1454.5
Attack Elo	1389.9	1421.3
Defense Elo	1339.4	1411.4
Last 5 Elo change	-12.3	-19.6

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Penuel last-5 Elo change: -12.3; Chornomorets II last-5 Elo change: -19.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Played	5	5
Form	13%	27%
Attack	13%	20%
Defense	40%	40%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	2 \| 0.4	3 \| 0.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	9 \| 1.8	9 \| 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%

FT probability

2.5+

52%

FT probability

3.5+

37%

FT probability

BTTS

67%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Penuel			Chornomorets II
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	12	13	25	11	12	23
Wins	8%	0%	4%	27%	0%	13%
Draws	42%	23%	32%	36%	42%	39%
Loses	50%	77%	64%	36%	58%	48%

PenuelLLLLDDLLLDLLLWDLLDLDLDLDL

Chornomorets IILLDDWDLLLLWLDDLDDDDLLLW

League goals

Metric	Penuel			Chornomorets II
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	11	9	20	11	8	19
GF avg	0.9	0.7	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.8
GA total	19	30	49	16	23	39
GA avg	1.6	2.3	2.0	1.5	1.9	1.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Penuel		Chornomorets II
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	48%	96%	52%	83%
1.5	32%	60%	26%	57%
2.5	0%	28%	4%	22%
3.5	0%	8%	0%	9%
4.5	0%	4%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Penuel			Chornomorets II
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	0	1	3	1	4
Failed to score	5	8	13	4	7	11

Penalties

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1

Streaks

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Wins	1	1
Draws	2	4
Losses	4	4

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	—	2-0	—
Biggest losses	0-4	5-0	0-3	4-0
Goals For	2	2	2	3
Goals Against	4	5	4	4

Model comparison

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Form	33%	67%
Att	40%	60%
Def	50%	50%
Poisson Distribution	62%	38%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	50%	50%
Total	47.5%	52.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Penuel vs Chornomorets II

Metric	Penuel	Chornomorets II
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	1