Victoria NPL — Australia
Fri, May 1 2026 • 09:30 • Green Gully Reserve
Not Started

Green Gully

—

Oakleigh Cannons

Expected Goals
0.14 (league 1.71) 2.77 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
1.0% 7.8% 85.0%
best score tips
0 - 2
20.9%
0 - 3
19.3%
0 - 1
15.1%
Score & goals probability table
Oakleigh Cannons
0 1 2 3 4 5
Green Gully 0 5.5% 15.1% 20.9% 19.3% 13.3% 7.4%
1 0.8% 2.1% 2.9% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0%
2 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Oakleigh Cannons carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 134 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Green Gully -17.6, Oakleigh Cannons +55.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Green Gully Elo 1435.1 · -17.6
vs
Oakleigh Cannons Elo 1603.6 · +55.6
Elo gapOakleigh Cannons +134
Home / draw / away26% / 18% / 56%
Expected home share32%
Combined Elo3038.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3038.7
Elo home share 32%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Green Gully Oakleigh Cannons
Overall Elo1435.11603.6
Form Elo1414.71634.2
Home / Away Elo1472.91539.3
Attack Elo1464.91707.1
Defense Elo1410.21544.1
Last 5 Elo change-17.6+55.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Green Gully last-5 Elo change: -17.6; Oakleigh Cannons last-5 Elo change: +55.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
Played55
Form13%87%
Attack25%100%
Defense0%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.613 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Green Gully Oakleigh Cannons
HATHAT
Played46106410
Wins0%0%0%67%50%60%
Draws25%33%30%0%50%20%
Loses75%67%70%33%0%20%
Green GullyLLLDLLDDLL
Oakleigh CannonsLWWDLWDWWW

League goals

Metric Green Gully Oakleigh Cannons
HATHAT
GF total14515823
GF avg0.30.70.52.52.02.3
GA total8152310313
GA avg2.02.52.31.70.81.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%100%80%
1.50%60%70%30%
2.50%30%50%20%
3.50%30%10%0%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
HATHAT
Clean sheets000112
Failed to score325000

Penalties

MetricGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
Wins02
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——4-00-3
Biggest losses0-45-01-3—
Goals For1143
Goals Against4531

Model comparison

MetricGreen GullyOakleigh Cannons
Form13%87%
Att19%81%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution4%96%
H2h29%71%
Goals40%60%
Total21.7%78.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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