Victoria NPL — Australia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 08:15 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Altona Magic

—

Dandenong City

Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.71) 1.80 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.5% 23.1% 53.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.9%
0 - 1
10.1%
1 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Dandenong City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Altona Magic 0 5.6% 10.1% 9.1% 5.5% 2.5% 0.9%
1 6.1% 10.9% 9.8% 5.9% 2.6% 1.0%
2 3.3% 5.9% 5.3% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Dandenong City carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Altona Magic +7.1, Dandenong City -4.3.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Altona Magic Elo 1443.4 · +7.1
vs
Dandenong City Elo 1559.3 · -4.3
Elo gapDandenong City +81
Home / draw / away31% / 21% / 48%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo3002.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3002.7
Elo home share 39%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Altona Magic Dandenong City
Overall Elo1443.41559.3
Form Elo1436.71553.4
Home / Away Elo1457.61534.6
Attack Elo14671606.4
Defense Elo1468.21534.8
Last 5 Elo change+7.1-4.3

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Altona Magic last-5 Elo change: +7.1; Dandenong City last-5 Elo change: -4.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAltona MagicDandenong City
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack58%67%
Defense25%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Altona Magic Dandenong City
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins0%20%10%33%25%30%
Draws20%60%40%33%25%30%
Loses80%20%50%33%50%40%
Altona MagicWLLLLDDDLD
Dandenong CityDLWDLDLWWL

League goals

Metric Altona Magic Dandenong City
HATHAT
GF total48128513
GF avg0.81.61.21.31.31.3
GA total108187916
GA avg2.01.61.81.22.31.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAltona MagicDandenong City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%100%70%70%
1.530%50%50%30%
2.510%20%10%30%
3.50%10%0%30%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAltona MagicDandenong City
HATHAT
Clean sheets000213
Failed to score202213

Penalties

MetricAltona MagicDandenong City
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAltona MagicDandenong City
Wins12
Draws31
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-33-01-2
Biggest losses2-43-12-44-1
Goals For2332
Goals Against4344

Model comparison

MetricAltona MagicDandenong City
Form36%64%
Att47%53%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h7%93%
Goals31%69%
Total34.3%65.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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