Expected Goals
2.39 (league 2.07)
1.58 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.2% | 19.3% | 24.4% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.5%
1 - 1
7.1%
3 - 1
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Zimbru II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FCM Ungheni | 0 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
FCM Ungheni carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 63 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FCM Ungheni +25.7, Zimbru II +0.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
FCM Ungheni
vs
Zimbru II
Elo gapFCM Ungheni +63
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3052.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3052.5
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1540.1 | 1512.4 |
| Form Elo | 1566.5 | 1501.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.9 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1665.3 | 1528.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1385 | 1499.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.7 | +0.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. FCM Ungheni last-5 Elo change: +25.7; Zimbru II last-5 Elo change: +0.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 60% |
| Attack | 100% | 47% |
| Defense | 47% | 84% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 20 | 4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
77%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 12 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Wins | 67% | 50% | 57% | 45% | 60% | 52% |
| Draws | 22% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 10% | 14% |
| Loses | 11% | 42% | 29% | 36% | 30% | 33% |
FCM UngheniLWLWLWDDWLLWWWDWWWWWL
Zimbru IIWLWLDWWDDWWWLLWLWWLWL
League goals
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 24 | 52 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
| GF avg | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 12 | 21 | 33 | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 86% | 71% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 81% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 19% | 43% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 14% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 2-4 | 5-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-3 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FCM Ungheni | Zimbru II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 23% | 77% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…