Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 23:00 •
Allianz Parque
Expected Goals
3.65 (league 1.63)
0.68 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
best score tips
3 - 0
10.7%
4 - 0
9.8%
2 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Santos W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Palmeiras W | 0 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.8% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Palmeiras W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 128 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Palmeiras W +15.4, Santos W +2.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Palmeiras W
vs
Santos W
Elo gapPalmeiras W +128
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3098.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3098.2
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1595.4 | 1502.8 |
| Form Elo | 1615.2 | 1503.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.4 | 1494 |
| Attack Elo | 1713.6 | 1510.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1524.9 | 1504.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +15.4 | +2.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Palmeiras W last-5 Elo change: +15.4; Santos W last-5 Elo change: +2.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 40% |
| Attack | 80% | 47% |
| Defense | 53% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 75% | 67% | 71% | 50% | 0% | 29% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 14% | 50% | 67% | 57% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 14% | 0% | 33% | 14% |
Palmeiras WWWWWLDW
Santos WWDWLDDD
League goals
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| GF avg | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Palmeiras W | Santos W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 71% | 100% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Palmeiras W | Santos W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 63% | 37% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 83% | 17% |
| Total | 70.8% | 29.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.30 @ Betano
Draw5.40 @ Marathonbet
Away8.75 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.84 @ Marathonbet
No1.95 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Betano
Under 2.52.47 @ Betano
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League standings
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