Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 21:00 •
Estadio Joia da Princesa
Expected Goals
2.13 (league 1.62)
1.27 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | 20.6% | 22.0% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 1
9.0%
2 - 0
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Gremio W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bahia W | 0 | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Bahia W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bahia W +56.7, Gremio W -6.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Bahia W
vs
Gremio W
Elo gapBahia W +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3037.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3037.5
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1546.4 | 1491.1 |
| Form Elo | 1578.8 | 1492.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.2 | 1497.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1579.4 | 1506.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1495.4 | 1518.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +56.7 | -6.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Bahia W last-5 Elo change: +56.7; Gremio W last-5 Elo change: -6.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 47% |
| Attack | 93% | 40% |
| Defense | 60% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 75% | 67% | 71% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 14% |
| Loses | 25% | 33% | 29% | 67% | 50% | 57% |
Bahia WLLWWWWW
Gremio WLLLDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bahia W | Gremio W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 100% | 71% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 0% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bahia W | Gremio W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ Betano
Draw3.55 @ Unibet
Away3.80 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.06 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.14 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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