Fri, May 1 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Expected Goals
0.33 (league 1.62)
0.88 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.4% | 39.1% | 47.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
29.7%
0 - 1
26.2%
0 - 2
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Internacional RS W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Santos W | 0 | 29.7% | 26.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Santos W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 48 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Santos W +2.9, Internacional RS W +23.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Santos W
vs
Internacional RS W
Elo gapSantos W +48
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2992.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2992.4
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1502.8 | 1489.6 |
| Form Elo | 1503.4 | 1518.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.7 | 1500.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.5 | 1468.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1504.6 | 1462.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.9 | +23.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Santos W last-5 Elo change: +2.9; Internacional RS W last-5 Elo change: +23.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 47% | 33% |
| Defense | 60% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 29% | 25% | 75% | 50% |
| Draws | 50% | 67% | 57% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 14% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
Santos WWDWLDDD
Internacional RS WLWDWLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Santos W | Internacional RS W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 86% | 88% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 14% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Santos W | Internacional RS W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 41.3% | 58.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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