Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys

A Lyga — Lithuania

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:15 • Marijampole Football Arena

Match Finished

home	draw	away
79.6%	6.1%	1.6%

		Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole	0	2.4%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	8.2%	2.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	13.8%	4.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	13.2%	4.5%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	8.9%	3.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Home lean

Suduva Marijampole carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 39 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Suduva Marijampole +6.1, Panevėžys +0.1.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone

Suduva Marijampole Elo 1577.3 · +6.1

Panevėžys Elo 1573.4 · +0.1

Elo gapSuduva Marijampole +39

Home / draw / away42% / 26% / 32%

Expected home share56%

Combined Elo3150.7

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home lean

Confidence band Lean confidence

Upset risk Medium-high

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3150.7

Elo home share 56%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Overall Elo	1577.3	1573.4
Form Elo	1582.4	1561.9
Home / Away Elo	1544.9	1524
Attack Elo	1555.3	1632
Defense Elo	1609.6	1550
Last 5 Elo change	+6.1	+0.1

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Suduva Marijampole last-5 Elo change: +6.1; Panevėžys last-5 Elo change: +0.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Played	5	5
Form	53%	60%
Attack	71%	43%
Defense	64%	57%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	6 \| 1.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	5 \| 1	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%

FT probability

2.5+

52%

FT probability

3.5+

37%

FT probability

BTTS

59%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Suduva Marijampole			Panevėžys
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	4	9	4	5	9
Wins	60%	0%	33%	25%	40%	33%
Draws	40%	50%	44%	50%	0%	22%
Loses	0%	50%	22%	25%	60%	44%

Suduva MarijampoleDDWLDDWLW

PanevėžysDLDLWWLWL

League goals

Metric	Suduva Marijampole			Panevėžys
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	10	2	12	3	5	8
GF avg	2.0	0.5	1.3	0.8	1.0	0.9
GA total	2	4	6	3	12	15
GA avg	0.4	1.0	0.7	0.8	2.4	1.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Suduva Marijampole		Panevėžys
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	56%	44%	67%	78%
1.5	33%	22%	22%	33%
2.5	22%	0%	0%	33%
3.5	11%	0%	0%	22%
4.5	11%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Suduva Marijampole			Panevėžys
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	1	5	1	1	2
Failed to score	2	2	4	2	1	3

Penalties

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	2

Streaks

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Wins	1	2
Draws	2	1
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-0	—	2-1	1-2
Biggest losses	—	2-1	0-1	4-0
Goals For	5	1	2	2
Goals Against	2	2	1	4

Model comparison

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Form	47%	53%
Att	63%	38%
Def	55%	45%
Poisson Distribution	90%	10%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	43%	57%
Total	58.0%	42.2%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Panevėžys
Scored (total \| %)	2 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	2	2

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys