Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.12)
0.47 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.8% | 27.5% | 12.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.7%
0 - 0
15.5%
2 - 0
15.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Hodio | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AS Sobemap | 0 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
AS Sobemap carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AS Sobemap -7.0, Hodio +24.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
AS Sobemap
vs
Hodio
Elo gapAS Sobemap +32
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3053.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3053.9
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1525.6 | 1528.3 |
| Form Elo | 1515.6 | 1534.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.2 | 1487.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1441 | 1456.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1570.7 | 1570 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.0 | +24.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. AS Sobemap last-5 Elo change: -7.0; Hodio last-5 Elo change: +24.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 53% |
| Attack | 14% | 36% |
| Defense | 71% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
53%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 67% | 38% | 52% | 42% | 15% | 28% |
| Draws | 17% | 31% | 24% | 42% | 38% | 40% |
| Loses | 17% | 31% | 24% | 17% | 46% | 32% |
AS SobemapDWWWWWDWLWDDWWWLLWLLWDDWL
HodioDLLWDLDLWWWLWDDDLDLDDWLDW
League goals
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AS Sobemap | Hodio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 44% | 64% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 8% | 24% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-0 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AS Sobemap | Hodio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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