Sat, Mar 14 2026 • 15:30 •
Centenary Stadium
Expected Goals
1.21 (league 1.63)
0.78 (league 1.68)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.1% | 29.9% | 23.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.5%
0 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Marsa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Santa Lucía | 0 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 20% |
| Attack | 50% | 67% |
| Defense | 58% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| Wins | 22% | 33% | 28% | 0% | 29% | 11% |
| Draws | 56% | 33% | 44% | 36% | 29% | 33% |
| Loses | 22% | 33% | 28% | 64% | 43% | 56% |
Form: Santa Lucía: WLDWLDLLWDDDDWLDWD • Marsa: LWLDDLLWLLLDLDLDLD
League goals
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 15 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 11 | 17 | 28 | 27 | 8 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Santa Lucía | Marsa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 78% | 83% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 50% | 44% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 22% | 6% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 3-5 | — | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Santa Lucía | Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 63.3% | 36.7% |
Advice: Double chance : Santa Lucía or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Santa Lucía = 1.21 (league 1.63), Marsa = 0.78 (league 1.68)
| Marsa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Santa Lucía | 0 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.1% · Draw 29.9% · Away win 23.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1