Cup — Bulgaria
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 16:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

CSKA Sofia

—

Ludogorets

Expected Goals
3.00 (league 1.00) 0.70 (league 2.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
74.8% 11.1% 5.7%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.1%
3 - 0
11.1%
4 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Ludogorets
0 1 2 3 4 5
CSKA Sofia 0 2.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 7.4% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.1% 7.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.1% 7.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.4% 5.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 5.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

CSKA Sofia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: CSKA Sofia +39.2, Ludogorets +16.3.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
CSKA Sofia Elo 1667.7 · +39.2
vs
Ludogorets Elo 1667.2 · +16.3
Elo gapCSKA Sofia +36
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3334.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3334.9
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric CSKA Sofia Ludogorets
Overall Elo1667.71667.2
Form Elo1713.21677.4
Home / Away Elo1602.21562.8
Attack Elo1622.41690.8
Defense Elo1695.71680.9
Last 5 Elo change+39.2+16.3

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. CSKA Sofia last-5 Elo change: +39.2; Ludogorets last-5 Elo change: +16.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCSKA SofiaLudogorets
Played44
Form100%75%
Attack57%57%
Defense79%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 28 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.85 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

94%
FT probability

2.5+

66%
FT probability

3.5+

47%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric CSKA Sofia Ludogorets
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins100%100%100%50%100%75%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%50%0%25%
CSKA SofiaWWWW
LudogoretsWWWL

League goals

Metric CSKA Sofia Ludogorets
HATHAT
GF total448268
GF avg2.02.02.01.03.02.0
GA total123235
GA avg0.51.00.81.01.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCSKA SofiaLudogorets
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%100%75%
1.5100%0%50%50%
2.50%0%50%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCSKA SofiaLudogorets
HATHAT
Clean sheets101101
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricCSKA SofiaLudogorets
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricCSKA SofiaLudogorets
Wins43
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-21-01-3
Biggest losses——1-2—
Goals For2213
Goals Against1122

Model comparison

MetricCSKA SofiaLudogorets
Form57%43%
Att50%50%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution83%17%
H2h38%62%
Goals36%64%
Total54.5%45.7%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.60 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.45 @ Betano
Away2.52 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ Betano
No1.98 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
📊

League standings

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