First Amateur Division — Belgium
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Rochefort

—

Habay-la-Neuve

Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.65) 1.62 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.9% 24.8% 49.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 1
11.0%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Habay-la-Neuve
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rochefort 0 6.8% 11.0% 9.0% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6%
1 7.3% 11.8% 9.5% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7%
2 3.9% 6.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4%
3 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Habay-la-Neuve carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rochefort -40.7, Habay-la-Neuve +0.2.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Rochefort Elo 1457.7 · -40.7
vs
Habay-la-Neuve Elo 1559.8 · +0.2
Elo gapHabay-la-Neuve +67
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3017.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3017.5
Elo home share 40%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric Rochefort Habay-la-Neuve
Overall Elo1457.71559.8
Form Elo14421557.5
Home / Away Elo14581509.4
Attack Elo1453.91551.4
Defense Elo1431.71521
Last 5 Elo change-40.7+0.2

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Rochefort last-5 Elo change: -40.7; Habay-la-Neuve last-5 Elo change: +0.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
Played55
Form0%47%
Attack13%27%
Defense33%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rochefort Habay-la-Neuve
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins29%33%31%60%29%45%
Draws21%13%17%20%29%24%
Loses50%53%52%20%43%31%
RochefortWLLWWDLLDLWLLLWDWLWDWWLDLLLLL
Habay-la-NeuveLWWLDLDWLWWWWDLWWDDLWDWLWDWLL

League goals

Metric Rochefort Habay-la-Neuve
HATHAT
GF total162036291746
GF avg1.11.31.21.91.21.6
GA total282654212243
GA avg2.01.71.91.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.566%83%72%69%
1.528%55%48%45%
2.517%28%24%21%
3.57%14%7%7%
4.57%7%3%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
HATHAT
Clean sheets145549
Failed to score4610268

Penalties

MetricRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
Wins24
Draws12
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-56-21-4
Biggest losses1-55-02-55-2
Goals For3564
Goals Against5555

Model comparison

MetricRochefortHabay-la-Neuve
Form0%100%
Att33%67%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h60%40%
Goals64%36%
Total45.2%54.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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