Excelsior Virton vs Meux

First Amateur Division — Belgium

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:00 • Stade Yvan Georges

Not Started

home	draw	away
52.9%	20.3%	24.0%

		Meux
Excelsior Virton	0	2.7%	3.8%	2.7%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%
1	5.9%	8.4%	5.9%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
2	6.5%	9.2%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
3	4.8%	6.8%	4.8%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.6%	3.7%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
5	1.2%	1.6%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Home strong edge

Excelsior Virton carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Excelsior Virton +31.3, Meux +8.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Excelsior Virton Elo 1633.3 · +31.3

Meux Elo 1578.1 · +8.5

Elo gapExcelsior Virton +90

Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%

Expected home share63%

Combined Elo3211.4

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3211.4

Elo home share 63%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Overall Elo	1633.3	1578.1
Form Elo	1645.2	1592.3
Home / Away Elo	1557.6	1532.9
Attack Elo	1719.4	1583.2
Defense Elo	1514.9	1565.7
Last 5 Elo change	+31.3	+8.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Excelsior Virton last-5 Elo change: +31.3; Meux last-5 Elo change: +8.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Played	5	5
Form	80%	60%
Attack	53%	67%
Defense	73%	53%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	10 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	7 \| 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

70%

FT probability

3.5+

50%

FT probability

BTTS

81%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Excelsior Virton			Meux
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	15	29	15	14	29
Wins	71%	53%	62%	53%	43%	48%
Draws	14%	20%	17%	13%	29%	21%
Loses	14%	27%	21%	33%	29%	31%

Excelsior VirtonWLWDDDLWWLWWWWDWWDWWWWLLWWWLW

MeuxDLLLLWWWLWWDWDDWLDWWWDLWLWLWW

League goals

Metric	Excelsior Virton			Meux
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	36	34	70	30	21	51
GF avg	2.6	2.3	2.4	2.0	1.5	1.8
GA total	19	26	45	17	20	37
GA avg	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.1	1.4	1.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Excelsior Virton		Meux
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	93%	79%	86%	69%
1.5	72%	52%	48%	31%
2.5	41%	14%	28%	17%
3.5	21%	3%	10%	10%
4.5	14%	3%	3%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Excelsior Virton			Meux
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	3	3	6	6	3	9
Failed to score	1	1	2	3	1	4

Penalties

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	5 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	5

Streaks

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Wins	4	3
Draws	3	2
Losses	2	4

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-1	0-4	4-0	0-3
Biggest losses	0-3	6-2	1-3	4-1
Goals For	5	5	5	3
Goals Against	3	6	4	4

Model comparison

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Form	57%	43%
Att	44%	56%
Def	64%	36%
Poisson Distribution	62%	38%
H2h	75%	25%
Goals	70%	30%
Total	62.0%	38.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Excelsior Virton vs Meux

Metric	Excelsior Virton	Meux
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	5 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	5

Excelsior Virton vs Meux