Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.58 (league 1.71)
1.07 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.9% | 33.1% | 46.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.5%
0 - 0
19.1%
1 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Fortaleza U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Botafogo U20 | 0 | 19.2% | 20.5% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Botafogo U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Botafogo U20 -22.5, Fortaleza U20 -0.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Botafogo U20
vs
Fortaleza U20
Elo gapBotafogo U20 +23
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3300.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3300.5
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1644.2 | 1656.3 |
| Form Elo | 1629.1 | 1652.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1605.5 | 1557.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1715.3 | 1688.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1674.8 | 1674 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.5 | -0.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Botafogo U20 last-5 Elo change: -22.5; Fortaleza U20 last-5 Elo change: -0.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 17% | 22% |
| Defense | 67% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 33% | 14% |
| Draws | 25% | 33% | 29% | 100% | 67% | 86% |
| Loses | 25% | 67% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Botafogo U20LWDLDLW
Fortaleza U20DDDWDDD
League goals
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 71% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 43% | 14% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Botafogo U20 | Fortaleza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 48.7% | 51.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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