Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.15 (league 1.71)
0.57 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% |
best score tips
3 - 0
12.7%
2 - 0
12.0%
4 - 0
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Cuiabá U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fluminense U20 | 0 | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.0% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.7% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.0% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Fluminense U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 109 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fluminense U20 -16.9, Cuiabá U20 -1.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fluminense U20
vs
Cuiabá U20
Elo gapFluminense U20 +109
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3078.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3078.3
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1576.1 | 1502.2 |
| Form Elo | 1566.6 | 1503 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.4 | 1461.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1564.5 | 1465.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1648.8 | 1563.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.9 | -1.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fluminense U20 last-5 Elo change: -16.9; Cuiabá U20 last-5 Elo change: -1.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 39% | 22% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 14% | 67% | 0% | 29% |
| Draws | 67% | 25% | 43% | 0% | 25% | 14% |
| Loses | 0% | 75% | 43% | 33% | 75% | 57% |
Fluminense U20DDLDLWL
Cuiabá U20WLDLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 100% | 43% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 71% | 29% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | — | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fluminense U20 | Cuiabá U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 67.8% | 32.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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