Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Svay Rieng Stadium
Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.53)
1.07 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.9% | 26.2% | 27.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
11.6%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| NagaWorld | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Svay Rieng | 0 | 7.9% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Svay Rieng carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 242 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Svay Rieng +16.2, NagaWorld +0.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Svay Rieng
vs
NagaWorld
Elo gapSvay Rieng +242
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3272.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3272.8
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1739.9 | 1532.9 |
| Form Elo | 1760.4 | 1532.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1586.5 | 1538 |
| Attack Elo | 1936.8 | 1495.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1683.7 | 1545.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.2 | +0.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Svay Rieng last-5 Elo change: +16.2; NagaWorld last-5 Elo change: +0.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 47% |
| Attack | 59% | 35% |
| Defense | 76% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Wins | 75% | 79% | 77% | 36% | 58% | 46% |
| Draws | 8% | 14% | 12% | 29% | 17% | 23% |
| Loses | 17% | 7% | 12% | 36% | 25% | 31% |
Svay RiengWWWWWLWWWWDWLLWWWWWWWDWDWW
NagaWorldLDWLWWDDWLLWDWWWDLWWLDWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 42 | 75 | 20 | 19 | 39 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 13 | 13 | 26 | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 96% | 65% | 88% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 81% | 27% | 42% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 8% | 19% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 1-6 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Svay Rieng | NagaWorld |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 61% | 39% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 69.8% | 30.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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