Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 20:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.44)
1.53 (league 0.85)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5% | 24.7% | 41.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 2
8.9%
0 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| El Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cumbayá | 0 | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Cumbayá carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cumbayá -23.0, El Nacional -25.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Cumbayá
vs
El Nacional
Elo gapCumbayá +32
Home / draw / away40% / 26% / 34%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2916.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2916.5
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1456.5 | 1460 |
| Form Elo | 1434.1 | 1441.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.7 | 1483.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1409.1 | 1486.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1491.8 | 1378.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -23.0 | -25.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Cumbayá last-5 Elo change: -23.0; El Nacional last-5 Elo change: -25.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 13% |
| Attack | 50% | 33% |
| Defense | 33% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
88%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 60% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 40% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
CumbayáDLDDL
El NacionalLLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cumbayá | El Nacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 80% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 60% | 0% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cumbayá | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 56.0% | 44.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.54 @ 1xBet
Draw3.78 @ Marathonbet
Away6.78 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.70 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.17 @ 1xBet
No1.63 @ 1xBet
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League standings
Loading standings…