Expected Goals
1.95 (league 1.02)
0.39 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.6% | 18.5% | 6.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.7%
2 - 0
18.3%
3 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Volta Redonda | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Maranhão | 0 | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.9% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Maranhão carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Maranhão -13.1, Volta Redonda -0.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Maranhão
vs
Volta Redonda
Elo gapMaranhão +42
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3005.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3005.5
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1506 | 1499.5 |
| Form Elo | 1473.7 | 1505.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526 | 1453.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1485.4 | 1431.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1548.6 | 1549.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.1 | -0.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Maranhão last-5 Elo change: -13.1; Volta Redonda last-5 Elo change: -0.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 33% |
| Attack | 8% | 8% |
| Defense | 50% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
MaranhãoDLL
Volta RedondaLLW
League goals
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| GA total | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Maranhão | Volta Redonda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 100% | 33% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Maranhão | Volta Redonda |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 36.0% | 64.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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