Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.03)
0.89 (league 0.78)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 40.6% | 57.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
38.9%
0 - 1
34.8%
0 - 2
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Amazonas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Santa Cruz | 0 | 38.9% | 34.8% | 15.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Santa Cruz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the thin confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Santa Cruz -6.0, Amazonas +39.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Santa Cruz
vs
Amazonas
Elo gapSanta Cruz +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3039.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3039.7
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.3 | 1528.4 |
| Form Elo | 1494 | 1585.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.7 | 1491.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1470.2 | 1502.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1602.6 | 1587.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.0 | +39.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Santa Cruz last-5 Elo change: -6.0; Amazonas last-5 Elo change: +39.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 100% |
| Attack | 17% | 50% |
| Defense | 83% | 100% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
39%
FT probability
2.5+
27%
FT probability
3.5+
19%
FT probability
BTTS
49%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Santa CruzWDL
AmazonasWWW
League goals
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Santa Cruz | Amazonas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Santa Cruz | Amazonas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 0% | 100% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 28.0% | 72.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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