Caxias vs Ypiranga-RS

Serie C — Brazil

Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 23:00 • Estadio Francisco Stedile

Not Started

Caxias

—

Ypiranga-RS

Expected Goals

0.98 (league 1.02) 2.61 (league 0.77)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
11.8%	15.8%	67.4%

best score tips

0 - 2

9.4%

1 - 2

9.2%

0 - 3

8.2%

Score & goals probability table

		Ypiranga-RS
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Caxias	0	2.8%	7.2%	9.4%	8.2%	5.4%	2.8%
	1	2.7%	7.1%	9.2%	8.0%	5.2%	2.7%
	2	1.3%	3.4%	4.5%	3.9%	2.6%	1.3%
	3	0.4%	1.1%	1.5%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%
	4	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
	5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Caxias -6.8, Ypiranga-RS +12.2.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Caxias Elo 1486.6 · -6.8

Ypiranga-RS Elo 1516.6 · +12.2

Elo gapCaxias +5

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo3003.2

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3003.2

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Overall Elo	1486.6	1516.6
Form Elo	1476.3	1571.5
Home / Away Elo	1524.8	1490
Attack Elo	1428.3	1453
Defense Elo	1575.7	1526.8
Last 5 Elo change	-6.8	+12.2

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Caxias last-5 Elo change: -6.8; Ypiranga-RS last-5 Elo change: +12.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Played	3	3
Form	33%	78%
Attack	17%	50%
Defense	75%	83%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	2 \| 0.7	6 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	3 \| 1	2 \| 0.7

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%

FT probability

2.5+

42%

FT probability

3.5+

30%

FT probability

BTTS

68%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-6

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Caxias			Ypiranga-RS
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	1	2	3	2	1	3
Wins	100%	0%	33%	50%	100%	67%
Draws	0%	0%	0%	50%	0%	33%
Loses	0%	100%	67%	0%	0%	0%

CaxiasLWL

Ypiranga-RSDWW

League goals

Metric	Caxias			Ypiranga-RS
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	1	1	2	4	2	6
GF avg	1.0	0.5	0.7	2.0	2.0	2.0
GA total	0	3	3	1	1	2
GA avg	0.0	1.5	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Caxias		Ypiranga-RS
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	67%	67%	100%	67%
1.5	0%	33%	67%	0%
2.5	0%	0%	33%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Caxias			Ypiranga-RS
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	0	1	1	0	1
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Wins	1	0
Draws	0	1
Losses	1	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	1-0	—	3-0	1-2
Biggest losses	—	2-1	—	—
Goals For	1	1	3	2
Goals Against	0	2	1	1

Model comparison

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Form	30%	70%
Att	25%	75%
Def	40%	60%
Poisson Distribution	100%	0%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	55%	45%
Total	40.0%	60.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Caxias vs Ypiranga-RS

Metric	Caxias	Ypiranga-RS
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0