Sat, May 2 2026 • 05:30 •
Karinya Reserve
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.82)
1.83 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.1% | 21.9% | 38.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
8.1%
2 - 1
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Adelaide United II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sturt Lions | 0 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Sturt Lions carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 175 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sturt Lions -30.0, Adelaide United II +36.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sturt Lions
vs
Adelaide United II
Elo gapSturt Lions +175
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3145.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3145.3
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1642.7 | 1502.6 |
| Form Elo | 1630.7 | 1518.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1551 | 1466.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1748.3 | 1554.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1591.1 | 1435.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -30.0 | +36.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sturt Lions last-5 Elo change: -30.0; Adelaide United II last-5 Elo change: +36.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 56% | 56% |
| Defense | 56% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 50% | 67% | 57% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 43% |
| Loses | 50% | 33% | 43% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
Sturt LionsWWLWLLW
Adelaide United IILLDWDDW
League goals
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 8 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 71% | 86% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% | 43% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-3 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sturt Lions | Adelaide United II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 50.5% | 49.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…