Sat, May 2 2026 • 08:30 •
Kilburn Sportsplex
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.82)
1.03 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4% | 31.5% | 38.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.2%
0 - 0
14.7%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| MetroStars | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| West Adelaide | 0 | 14.7% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
MetroStars carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: West Adelaide -8.5, MetroStars +25.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
West Adelaide
vs
MetroStars
Elo gapMetroStars +19
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3210.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3210.3
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1578.1 | 1632.2 |
| Form Elo | 1559.2 | 1643.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1544.5 | 1574.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1670.1 | 1700.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.2 | 1613.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.5 | +25.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. West Adelaide last-5 Elo change: -8.5; MetroStars last-5 Elo change: +25.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 73% |
| Attack | 56% | 81% |
| Defense | 44% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
93%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 25% | 29% | 50% | 67% | 57% |
| Draws | 67% | 0% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Loses | 0% | 75% | 43% | 25% | 0% | 14% |
West AdelaideLLWWDDL
MetroStarsWLWDWDW
League goals
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 4 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | West Adelaide | MetroStars | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 86% | 43% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 57% | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 43% | 14% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-2 | 7-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-0 | 1-3 | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | West Adelaide | MetroStars |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 9% | 91% |
| Total | 30.8% | 69.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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