Paranaense - 2
— Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.43)
0.39 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% | 29.9% | 11.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
24.1%
0 - 0
19.1%
2 - 0
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Patriotas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Parana | 0 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.2% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Parana carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 52 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Parana +36.1, Patriotas +38.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Parana
vs
Patriotas
Elo gapParana +52
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3036.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3036.4
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1526.7 | 1509.7 |
| Form Elo | 1559.9 | 1545.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.4 | 1489.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1488.5 | 1492.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1535.4 | 1482.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +36.1 | +38.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Parana last-5 Elo change: +36.1; Patriotas last-5 Elo change: +38.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 80% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 67% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 33% | 75% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 33% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 13% |
ParanaWWWDDWWW
PatriotasWWDLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Parana | Patriotas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 25% | 88% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 0% | 63% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 38% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Parana | Patriotas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 48% | 52% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 65.2% | 34.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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