Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.42 (league 1.43)
0.71 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.3% | 42.8% | 37.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
32.4%
0 - 1
22.9%
1 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Nacional PR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Laranja Mecânica | 0 | 32.4% | 22.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Laranja Mecânica carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 84 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Laranja Mecânica +49.2, Nacional PR -38.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Laranja Mecânica
vs
Nacional PR
Elo gapLaranja Mecânica +84
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2985.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2985.9
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1517.5 | 1468.4 |
| Form Elo | 1539.6 | 1449.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.6 | 1466.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1444.1 | 1448.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1522.2 | 1454.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +49.2 | -38.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Laranja Mecânica last-5 Elo change: +49.2; Nacional PR last-5 Elo change: -38.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 13% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 83% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins | 33% | 60% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 13% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 25% | 60% | 33% | 50% |
| Loses | 33% | 20% | 25% | 20% | 67% | 38% |
Laranja MecânicaLLDWWWDW
Nacional PRDWDDLLLD
League goals
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| GF avg | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 25% | 13% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Laranja Mecânica | Nacional PR |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 87% | 13% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 91% | 9% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 56.8% | 43.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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