Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.08 (league 1.44)
0.68 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.0% | 19.0% | 11.0% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.7%
1 - 0
13.1%
3 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Toktogul | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alga | 0 | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Alga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alga +38.1, Toktogul +1.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Alga
vs
Toktogul
Elo gapAlga +27
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2991.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2991.1
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.4 | 1499.7 |
| Form Elo | 1526.7 | 1500.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1496.2 | 1507.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1506.9 | 1484.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1514.4 | 1506 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +38.1 | +1.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Alga last-5 Elo change: +38.1; Toktogul last-5 Elo change: +1.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 80% | 27% |
| Defense | 67% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 100% | 33% | 67% | 25% | 67% | 43% |
| Draws | 0% | 67% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 33% | 57% |
AlgaWWDDWW
ToktogulWLLLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alga | Toktogul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 57% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 33% | 29% | 71% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 29% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alga | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 70.8% | 29.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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