Fri, May 1 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.42 (league 1.24)
0.31 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 80.5% | 12.4% | 3.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
19.0%
1 - 0
15.7%
3 - 0
15.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Parvoz | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Khujand | 0 | 6.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.7% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.4% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Khujand carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Khujand +1.7, Parvoz -31.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Khujand
vs
Parvoz
Elo gapKhujand +81
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2976.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2976.4
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.4 | 1465 |
| Form Elo | 1515.5 | 1442.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.9 | 1485.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1439.6 | 1455 |
| Defense Elo | 1574.7 | 1481.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.7 | -31.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Khujand last-5 Elo change: +1.7; Parvoz last-5 Elo change: -31.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 57% | 14% |
| Defense | 43% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
46%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 67% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 17% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
KhujandWDWDDL
ParvozDLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Khujand | Parvoz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Khujand | Parvoz |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 80% | 20% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 81% | 19% |
| Total | 77.6% | 22.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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