Sat, May 2 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.24)
1.79 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | 22.8% | 59.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.3%
0 - 2
11.9%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Sardor Tursunzoda | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eskhata | 0 | 7.4% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Eskhata carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Eskhata -5.5, Sardor Tursunzoda -20.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Eskhata
vs
Sardor Tursunzoda
Elo gapEskhata +32
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2965.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2965.5
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1481.3 | 1484.2 |
| Form Elo | 1473.1 | 1466 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.8 | 1489.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.4 | 1489.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1469.8 | 1511.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.5 | -20.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Eskhata last-5 Elo change: -5.5; Sardor Tursunzoda last-5 Elo change: -20.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 71% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 50% |
EskhataLLWLLW
Sardor TursunzodaDWLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 17% | 17% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eskhata | Sardor Tursunzoda |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 25% | 75% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 44.0% | 56.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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