Thu, Mar 12 2026 • 17:45 • Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.57) 1.49 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.8% 26.0% 47.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.3%
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 8.1% 12.1% 9.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
1 8.3% 12.3% 9.2% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLilleAston Villa
Played55
Form40%100%
Attack25%83%
Defense67%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lille Aston Villa
HATHAT
Played5510448
Wins60%40%50%100%75%88%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses40%60%50%0%25%13%

Form: Lille: WWLLWLLWLW • Aston Villa: WWLWWWWW

League goals

Metric Lille Aston Villa
HATHAT
GF total103138614
GF avg2.00.61.32.01.51.8
GA total6410336
GA avg1.20.81.00.80.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLilleAston Villa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%60%100%50%
1.530%20%63%25%
2.520%10%13%0%
3.510%10%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLilleAston Villa
HATHAT
Clean sheets224224
Failed to score123000

Penalties

MetricLilleAston Villa
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricLilleAston Villa
Wins22
Draws00
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-12-00-2
Biggest losses3-42-1—2-1
Goals For4132
Goals Against4222

Model comparison

MetricLilleAston Villa
Form29%71%
Att23%77%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total40.5%59.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Aston Villa

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.38 @ 1xBet
Draw3.36 @ 1xBet
Away2.46 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.85 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No2.04 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lille = 1.02 (league 1.57), Aston Villa = 1.49 (league 1.21)

Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lille 0 8.1% 12.1% 9.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
1 8.3% 12.3% 9.2% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.8% · Draw 26.0% · Away win 47.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1