Thu, Mar 19 2026 • 20:00 • Villa Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.57) 0.40 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.6% 35.1% 14.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
24.7%
0 - 0
24.2%
2 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
Lille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 24.2% 9.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.7% 9.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 12.6% 5.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAston VillaLille
Played55
Form100%40%
Attack90%30%
Defense60%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aston Villa Lille
HATHAT
Played4596511
Wins100%80%89%50%40%45%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%20%11%50%60%55%

Form: Aston Villa: WWLWWWWWW • Lille: WWLLWLLWLWL

League goals

Metric Aston Villa Lille
HATHAT
GF total871510313
GF avg2.01.41.71.70.61.2
GA total3367411
GA avg0.80.60.71.20.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAston VillaLille
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%44%64%64%
1.556%22%27%18%
2.511%0%18%9%
3.50%0%9%9%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAston VillaLille
HATHAT
Clean sheets235224
Failed to score000224

Penalties

MetricAston VillaLille
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAston VillaLille
Wins22
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-24-00-1
Biggest losses—2-13-42-1
Goals For3241
Goals Against2242

Model comparison

MetricAston VillaLille
Form71%29%
Att75%25%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h67%33%
Goals57%43%
Total65.7%34.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Aston Villa or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ Betano
Draw4.18 @ 1xBet
Away5.29 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.97 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.93 @ Pinnacle
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Aston Villa = 1.02 (league 1.57), Lille = 0.40 (league 1.21)

Lille
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 24.2% 9.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 24.7% 9.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 12.6% 5.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.6% · Draw 35.1% · Away win 14.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1