Thu, Mar 19 2026 • 17:45 • ArcelorMittal Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.61) 0.51 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.2% 42.2% 23.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
30.7%
1 - 0
20.7%
0 - 1
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Raków Częstochowa 0 30.7% 15.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.7% 10.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.9% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
Played55
Form67%60%
Attack64%82%
Defense73%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Raków Częstochowa Fiorentina
HATHAT
Played67136511
Wins83%57%69%67%60%64%
Draws0%29%15%0%0%0%
Loses17%14%15%33%40%36%

Form: Raków Częstochowa: WWLWWWWDDWWWL • Fiorentina: WWWWLLWLWLW

League goals

Metric Raków Częstochowa Fiorentina
HATHAT
GF total111021111021
GF avg1.81.41.61.82.01.9
GA total2579312
GA avg0.30.70.51.50.61.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%46%82%64%
1.546%8%73%27%
2.523%0%36%9%
3.58%0%0%9%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
HATHAT
Clean sheets437134
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
Wins44
Draws20
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-32-00-3
Biggest losses0-12-12-42-1
Goals For4333
Goals Against1242

Model comparison

MetricRaków CzęstochowaFiorentina
Form53%47%
Att44%56%
Def70%30%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h0%100%
Goals33%67%
Total50.6%49.4%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fiorentina

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.64 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away2.91 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.08 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.93 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ Pinnacle
No2.15 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Raków Częstochowa = 0.67 (league 1.61), Fiorentina = 0.51 (league 1.18)

Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Raków Częstochowa 0 30.7% 15.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.7% 10.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.9% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.2% · Draw 42.2% · Away win 23.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1