Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 22:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.58)
1.64 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4% | 24.3% | 45.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Concón National | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Colina | 0 | 5.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Colina carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Colina -11.0, Concón National -6.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Colina
vs
Concón National
Elo gapColina +29
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2983.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2983.7
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Colina | Concón National |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1489 | 1494.7 |
| Form Elo | 1477.6 | 1481.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499 | 1532 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.3 | 1554.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.8 | 1493.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -11.0 | -6.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Colina last-5 Elo change: -11.0; Concón National last-5 Elo change: -6.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Colina | Concón National |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 22% | 44% |
| Attack | 19% | 19% |
| Defense | 75% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
4-7
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Colina | Concón National | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
ColinaLDD
Concón NationalDWL
League goals
| Metric | Colina | Concón National | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Colina | Concón National | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Colina | Concón National | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Colina | Concón National |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Colina | Concón National |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 1-2 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Colina | Concón National |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 42.0% | 58.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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