1 Lyga — Lithuania
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Kretinga Stadium
Not Started

Minija

—

FA Šiauliai II

Expected Goals
4.99 (league 1.50) 0.12 (league 1.54)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
60.7% 1.0% 0.1%
best score tips
4 - 0
15.7%
5 - 0
15.6%
3 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
FA Šiauliai II
0 1 2 3 4 5
Minija 0 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 7.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 12.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 15.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 15.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Minija carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 132 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Minija +55.1, FA Šiauliai II -22.3.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Minija Elo 1517.2 · +55.1
vs
FA Šiauliai II Elo 1420.6 · -22.3
Elo gapMinija +132
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2937.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2937.8
Elo home share 68%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Minija FA Šiauliai II
Overall Elo1517.21420.6
Form Elo1565.71399.5
Home / Away Elo1468.21478.5
Attack Elo1500.81525.8
Defense Elo1513.61308.2
Last 5 Elo change+55.1-22.3

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Minija last-5 Elo change: +55.1; FA Šiauliai II last-5 Elo change: -22.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMinijaFA Šiauliai II
Played55
Form100%13%
Attack89%17%
Defense83%39%
Goals For (tot | avg)16 | 3.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Minija FA Šiauliai II
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins100%100%100%0%0%0%
Draws0%0%0%67%0%40%
Loses0%0%0%33%100%60%
MinijaWWWWW
FA Šiauliai IIDLLLD

League goals

Metric Minija FA Šiauliai II
HATHAT
GF total9716303
GF avg3.03.53.21.00.00.6
GA total1236511
GA avg0.31.00.62.02.52.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMinijaFA Šiauliai II
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%40%40%80%
1.5100%20%20%60%
2.580%0%0%40%
3.540%0%0%40%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMinijaFA Šiauliai II
HATHAT
Clean sheets213101
Failed to score000123

Penalties

MetricMinijaFA Šiauliai II
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricMinijaFA Šiauliai II
Wins50
Draws01
Losses03

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-4——
Biggest losses——1-44-0
Goals For4420
Goals Against1244

Model comparison

MetricMinijaFA Šiauliai II
Form88%12%
Att84%16%
Def79%21%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h40%60%
Goals25%75%
Total63.2%36.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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